Cost analysis of the utility-scale photovoltaic plant
Elo, Antti (2018)
2018
Sähkötekniikka
Tieto- ja sähkötekniikan tiedekunta - Faculty of Computing and Electrical Engineering
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Hyväksymispäivämäärä
2018-03-07
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tty-201802271322
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tty-201802271322
Tiivistelmä
Solar market has had a steep growth during the last ten years. Even though having more than decade’s history, the solar market can thought to be still in its infancy. Therefore, the demand in the market is still highly related to government policies and targets of countries for energy mixes. Since 2011, the solar power has accounted more than half of the new installed renewable energy generation. In ten years the solar market has increased by 20 times. Therefore, it is obvious that used technology and manufacturing processes have improved greatly during that period. However, a lot changes will be still ahead to ensure the bright future of solar power.
When operating in an exponential growth market the change is happening with so fast pace that the large organizations need to be agile to stay competitive under continues change and price pressure. Where the future cost reduction potentials are? What is the future solar topology and what is the size of solar market in 2025? In response to these questions, this thesis aims to give a thorough understanding of what solar market has experienced during the last decade but also where the market is heading to and what trends can be expected in the future. This is a comprehensive study of the utility scale solar market.
This thesis is divided into four main areas, which are explaining the technology and components used in the solar plant, introducing the previous trends and cost of solar power and analyzing the future trends and their impact to the cost. Finally, resulting $/kWh price forecast in 2025 for different cost categories. The future price calculation is based on projecting the solar market size in 2025 and then using the on-going trends and previous historical learning rates to estimate the new learning rate for 2025 year. The future cost calculations are made by using one-way factor learning method.
When operating in an exponential growth market the change is happening with so fast pace that the large organizations need to be agile to stay competitive under continues change and price pressure. Where the future cost reduction potentials are? What is the future solar topology and what is the size of solar market in 2025? In response to these questions, this thesis aims to give a thorough understanding of what solar market has experienced during the last decade but also where the market is heading to and what trends can be expected in the future. This is a comprehensive study of the utility scale solar market.
This thesis is divided into four main areas, which are explaining the technology and components used in the solar plant, introducing the previous trends and cost of solar power and analyzing the future trends and their impact to the cost. Finally, resulting $/kWh price forecast in 2025 for different cost categories. The future price calculation is based on projecting the solar market size in 2025 and then using the on-going trends and previous historical learning rates to estimate the new learning rate for 2025 year. The future cost calculations are made by using one-way factor learning method.