Hyppää sisältöön
    • Suomeksi
    • In English
Trepo
  • Suomeksi
  • In English
  • Kirjaudu
Näytä viite 
  •   Etusivu
  • Trepo
  • Opinnäytteet - ylempi korkeakoulututkinto
  • Näytä viite
  •   Etusivu
  • Trepo
  • Opinnäytteet - ylempi korkeakoulututkinto
  • Näytä viite
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Risk and Hedging: A Forecasting Model Analysis of Estonian Security Strategy

SIEBERG, ERIK (2011)

 
Avaa tiedosto
gradu05212.pdf (536.1Kt)
Lataukset: 



SIEBERG, ERIK
2011

Kansainvälinen politiikka - International Relations
Johtamiskorkeakoulu - School of Management
This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited.
Hyväksymispäivämäärä
2011-06-13
Näytä kaikki kuvailutiedot
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi:uta-1-21725
Tiivistelmä
Post-Soviet Estonian security management behavior is used as a case study to differentiate and conceptualize "hedging" as a distinct and integral security risk reduction behavior in International Relations. A forecasting model developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is utilized to structure and analyze the interactions of all stakeholders involved in contentious negotiations over an issue. The research utilizes the model to substantiate and confirm the concept of "hedging" through the modeled spatial and Bayesian output manifestations of stakeholder security-related interactions. The same process to substantiate "hedging" as a distinct security-enhancing behavior also highlights benefits and risks of "hedges". The extended research consists of a comparative three hypothetical Scenario framework and a security related issue (the April 2007 Bronze Soldier incident) which identifies spatial attributes, characteristics and overall systemic impact associated with Estonian security "hedging" behavior through membership in NATO and the EU. Such NATO and EU institutional linkages to Estonia are assumed to increase salience of fellow members to Estonian security-related issues such as the Bronze Soldier dispute with the Russian Federation. The analysis finds that NATO and EU membership for Estonia provided efficacious security enhancement in the dispute. Further determinations are made about Estonian "hedging" costs relative to the uncertainty of future benefits of either or both NATO and EU institutional "hedges". Additionally, the research gives a picture of regional stakeholder relations and determines that NATO and EU institutional expansion in the Estonian case contributes to European regional security and systemic stability.

Asiasanat:Estonia, Security, Hedging, NATO, EU, Forecasting Model, Expected Utility
Kokoelmat
  • Opinnäytteet - ylempi korkeakoulututkinto [40066]
Kalevantie 5
PL 617
33014 Tampereen yliopisto
oa[@]tuni.fi | Tietosuoja | Saavutettavuusseloste
 

 

Selaa kokoelmaa

TekijätNimekkeetTiedekunta (2019 -)Tiedekunta (- 2018)Tutkinto-ohjelmat ja opintosuunnatAvainsanatJulkaisuajatKokoelmat

Omat tiedot

Kirjaudu sisäänRekisteröidy
Kalevantie 5
PL 617
33014 Tampereen yliopisto
oa[@]tuni.fi | Tietosuoja | Saavutettavuusseloste