Taistelu helikoptereista. Eduskunnan ja puolustushallinnon välisen asiantuntijavallan tarkastelu, esimerkkitapauksena maavoimien tilausvaltuuskysymys 1998

Abstract

Suomen hallituksen odotetaan tekevän uuden ehdotuksen saattohelikoptereiden hankinnoista lähivuosina, selviää juuri valmistuneesta väitöskirjasta. Kansanedustajista, puolustushallinnon keskeisistä virkamiehistä ja poliittisista toimittajista liki 90 prosenttia uskoo, että saattohelikopterit tulevat uudestaan eduskuntakäsittelyyn. YM FM Lea Ahoniemen väitöskirjassa "Taistelu helikoptereista" tutkittiin myös keskeisten päättäjien ja poliittisten toimittajien NATO-käsityksiä. Ahoniemen väitöskirjan mukaan Suomen liittymistä NATO:on pitää todennäköisenä 39 prosenttia vastaajista ja epätodennäköisenä 45 prosenttia. Kyselyihin vastanneista yhteensä 341 henkilöstä 16% ei ottanut Suomen mahdolliseen NATO-jäsenyyteen kantaa.

Tuoretta väitöskirjaa varten tehtiin kysely kansanedustajille, puolustushallinnon virkamiehille ja aihealueesta kirjoittaville toimittajille toukokuussa 1998, ja uudelleen kansanedustajille toukokuussa 1999. Suomen puolustuspolitiikan linjauksista päättää suppea eliitti, johon kuuluu noin parikymmentä henkilöä, kertoo tutkimustulos. Tavallinen rivipoliitikko tuntee vaikutusmahdollisuutensa armeijan hankintoihin vähäisiksi.

Eduskunnan ja puolustushallinnon välistä asiantuntijavaltaa tarkastelevan tutkimuksen tavoitteena on kuvata Suomen turvallisuus- ja puolustuspoliittista päätöksentekojärjestelmää ja sen kehittymistä nykymuotoonsa. Tavoitteena on lisäksi kartoittaa keskeisiä alan päätöksentekoon vaikuttavia toimijoita ja hahmottaa heidän asennoitumistaan keskeisiin puolustuspoliittisiin kysymyksiin.

Case tutkimustapauksena on tarkasteltu maavoimien valmiusyhtymien varustamiskysymystä. Hallitus esitti syksyllä 1997 eduskunnan hyväksyttäväksi yhteensä 7,7 miljardin markan tilausvaltuutta maavoimien valmiusyhtymien varusteluja varten, josta helikopterihankinnan osuus oli 5,6 miljardia markkaa. Puolustusministeriön mukaan suojaustehtävään tarkoitettuja saattohelikoptereita tarvittaisiin kuljetushelikoptereiden lisäksi siten, että kahta tai kolmea kuljetushelikopteria olisi suojaamassa yksi saattohelikopteri. Eduskunta siirsi asian käsittelyn kevääseen 1998, jolloin Suomessa alkoi laaja puolustuspoliittinen keskustelu, mihin helikoptereita tarvittaisiin ja onko hankinnan taustalla mahdollisesti tiivistyvä kansainvälinen puolustuspoliittinen yhteistyö.

The aim of the study is to describe the decision-making system on security and defence and its evolution to its present condition. The objective is further to review those actors whose influence on decision-making is paramount and to outline their attitudes to central defence issues.

The theoretical point of departure of the study is the application to defence policy decision-making in Finnish society of the theories outlined by the elite theorists Gaetano Mosca, C. Wright Mills and Gabriel Almond and also the organisational theorists Max Weber and Robert Michels. The second point of departure for the theoretical examination is policy analysis through which the cause and effect relations in defence policy decision-making are scrutinized.

The issue of the readiness brigades of the ground forces is taken as a case in point. In autumn 1997 the Government requested parliamentary approval for a procurement authorisation of FIM 7.7 billion (1303 million Euros) for equipping army readiness brigades, of which the acquisition of helicopters amounted to FIM 5.6 billion (942 million Euros). According to the Ministry of Defence escort helicopters, intended to provide the transport helicopters with cover, would also be needed in a ratio of 1:2 3. Parliament deferred the issue until spring 1998, when an extensive discussion on defence policy began as to the purpose for which the helicopters were needed and whether there was a possiblity of more intense international defence cooperation behind the acquisition. Those negotiators of the political parties represented in the Government, i.e. the Social Democratic Party, The National Coalition Party, the Left Alliance, the Swedish Party and the Green League of Finland put forward a compromise solution FIM 1.2 billion (202 million Euros) smaller than the original proposal, but this was not approved by the Members of Parliament. The Social Democrats in particular voiced the opinion that in the years of economic recession it had been necessary to cut back on social, health care and education costs in the Finnish economy, thus such measures should also be applied to defence costs. After further negotiations Parliament authorised the sum of FIM 6.1 billion (1026 million Euros) with the appropriation for the helicopters now reduced to FIM 2.2 billion (370 million Euros), namely 58% of the sum proposed by the Ministry of Defence. The decision authorised the procurement of the helicopters, but their use was restricted to transportation functions and the acquisition of combat helicopters was not approved.

This was the first occasion since the Second World War when Parliament intervened so decisively in the acquisitions of the defence administration. Throughout autumn 1997 and winter 1998 there was abundant debate in the media regarding the helicopters. One of the aims of the study is to estimate the effect of the public debate on the decision to curtail the acquisition and to review the more influential media.

The responses to questionnaires to experts in spring 1998 and 1999 are also an important part of the data. The objective was to survey the opinions of those involved in decision-making on defence policy or exerting indirect influence on the division of labour between Parliament and the defence administration. For this purpose a questionnaire was posted in May 1998 to all Members of Parliament, the civil servants (also army officers) responsible for the preparation of the issue in the defence administration and in Parliament and the representatives of the media who had dealt with the acquisition of the helicopters. Respondents were requested to indicate whether they believed that the cutback decision taken by Parliament regarding the acquisition of helicopters had been successful, whether it enhanced the prestige of Parliament and whether there was confidence in the expertise of the decisions of the defence administration and the decisions taken by Parliament. Another important subarea was to survey opinions as to whether the respondents believed that there was a connection between the acquisition of the helicopters and cooperation between Finland and NATO and whether the respondents felt that there was a likelihood of Finland joining NATO. Opinions were further collected on Finland s non-ratification of the international Ottawa agreement on the banning of anti-personnel mines. A total of 253 people responded to the questionnaire in spring 1998, the average response rate being 59%. The 1998 questionnaire drew responses from 57% of Members of Parliament.

Later, in March 1999 a similar but shorter, updated questionnaire was implemented among Members of Parliament elected or re-elected in the parliamentary elections of March 1999. The response rate was 44% with 88 completed questionnaires. On both occasions respondents were requested to name the main influential people in security policy and the most influential media. Respondents were also asked whether what was written in the media had any effect on decision-making in defence policy. A total of 341 responses were received to expert questionnaires sent out on the basis of institutional position. Responses were cross-tabulated according to respondents background position, i.e. profession, political affiliation, and gender and they were further analysed using factor analysis and cluster analysis.

A summary of the results permits the conclusion that the debate on the helicopters was generally expected to continue. A governmental proposal on the acquisition of escort helicopters in the next few years was expected by 87% of respondents. Those respondents supporting the political centre and right wing were in favour of the escort helicopters, while most of the left wing and the Greens were opposed to them. Members of Parliament were of the opinion that the debate about the helicopters in spring 1998 had served to enhance parliamentary prestige, whereas in the opinion of the civil servants (army officers) it had been detrimental to parliamentary prestige. Female respondents expressed confidence in the ability of Parliament to estimate acquisitions of the Defence Forces. Female respondents, who accounted for 27% of all respondents, were clearly more inclined to reduce military expenditure because it had been necessary to make cutbacks in other areas of society.

It may be concluded from the results of the factor and cluster analyses that a few obvious basic traits could be identified among the respondents. The questionnaire of 1998 permitted the identification of five analytical categories. Those most firmly in favour of national defence continued to be the right wing and the politically unaligned. The civil servants (including army officers) of the defence administration fell into this category, which adheres fairly uniformly to the line of the national leadership. Another interesting and relatively new category identified in Finnish defence policy is that which places its faith in international defence solutions, namely the creation of a European crisis management system or NATO-centred defence and crisis management cooperation. This group included relatively many women, left wing supporters and Greens. A third category is that which has faith in both national defence and cooperation with NATO, and includes mostly the right wing and the politically unaligned. These respondents reported that Finland should acquire her own helicopters even though she may well join NATO in the future. Almost half of the media respondents fell into this category, thus in a mild generalisation one might state that journalists dealing with Finnish defence policy are fairly positively disposed towards the Defence Forces. The Government-Opposition axis is stressed in the objectives of the fourth category, and they were interested in increasing the opportunities of all political parties to exert influence over decision-making on defence policy. Mention should also be made of the group with a social orientation, which was composed mostly of Social Democrats and relatively most female respondents. The analytical categories formed in the 1999 survey were roughly the same as the 1998 groups described in greater detail.

The conclusion which this study permits is that the tasks of the Finnish Defence Forces are felt to be more international than before. The participation of Finns in United Nations peacekeeping tasks for more than 40 years has laid a good foundation for their participation in crisis management operations. The next step will be the intensifying common foreign and security policy of the European Union, to which tasks of the Finnish Defence Forces will most probably be gradually accommodated.