Scenario-based Assessment of Truck Electrification: Estimating Emissions and Impact on Charging Infrastructure in Helsinki Metropolitan Area A Simulation Based Evaluation

Abstract

Climate change is real and so its repercussions – as visible as the broad day light. Carbon emissions are considered as a major contributor in greenhouse gases, and urban logistics are significantly contributing to these emissions especially in compact and densely populated urban cities where freight vehicles operate intensively. Although these vehicles take a small proportion of the road transport fleet, but they account for a large share of carbon emissions which makes them an important target for decarbonizing and for achieving carbon neutrality. Consequently, the electrification of urban logistics has been widely recognized in the literature as one of the most promising approaches for reducing emissions from freight transport.

This thesis explores the pathway towards Zero Emission Urban Logistics (ZEUL) by investigating four electrification scenarios for Helsinki Metropolitan Area in the year 2040 using the SUMO. These scenarios are simulated to evaluate the potential reduction in carbon emissions under different levels of fleet electrification and to examine the resulting impacts on charging infrastructure. In addition, two urban logistics measure i.e., Zero Emission Zones (ZEZs) and Megawatt Charging Systems (MCS) were incorporated into the model to assess their contribution to emission reduction and charging performance. The simulation results showed a clear relationship between the level of fleet electrification and carbon emissions. As it increased, carbon emissions decreased compared with the Base Scenario. At the same time, higher levels of electrification led to an increase in the number of vehicles using charging stations, greater electricity demand, and longer average vehicle charging duration. The analysis also identified locations where additional charging infrastructure would be required to support future electrification.

When ZEZs were introduced alongside fleet electrification, the reduction in daily carbon emissions was substantially greater than with electrification alone. It was recorded that, with accelerated electrification alongside with city-wide ZEZ a reduction of 44% of CO2 emissions per day from ICE truck and 55% of CO2 emissions reduction per day from ICE trailer can be achieved. Similarly, upgrading charging stations to Megawatt Charging Systems significantly reduced the average charging time up to 20 mins for heavy-duty electric vehicles. These findings provide practical insights for policymakers and urban planners in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, supporting evidence-based decisions on charging infrastructure planning, zoning policies, and the transition towards zero emission urban logistics (ZEUL).

The study’s limitations are mainly related to the assumptions made regarding vehicle characteristics and their standardization, including vehicle size, vehicle type, emission classification, and battery state of charge. Despite these limitations, the study contributes to the existing scientific knowledge by providing a methodological framework for evaluating metropolitan-scale urban logistics electrification scenarios and assessing their potential in achieving ZEUL.