Quotas Unhinged? How the Change to Preferential Voting Impacts Women’s Representation in Two German Länder

Abstract

Proportional electoral systems, especially when coupled with voluntary party or legislative gender quotas, have been considered beneficial for advancing women’s representation. Extant research on preferential voting in proportional systems, however, yields conflicting evidence. We focus on recent electoral reforms in two German Länder, Hamburg and Bremen, that converted their proportional system from closed to open party lists with preferential voting. Through calculating a counterfactual, we assess the gendered outcomes differentiated between elections, parliaments and parties, to show that party culture plays a pivotal role in shaping the effects of voluntary party quotas within the context of electoral system changes. Our findings underscore the nuanced interaction between electoral system reform and a party’s commitment to gender parity, highlighting the significance of pre-reform party positions and their dedication to prioritizing gender quotas.