Combined impacts of extreme climate events and pandemic on future energy use in low-income households in Greater London

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy use has been studied across various countries. However, with the growing trend toward flexible working and the rising frequency of climate-induced extreme weather events, the combined effects of these factors on future energy use remain largely unexplored. This study develops a methodology to investigate the resilience of the UK’s low-income housing sector in response to the combined impacts of climate change and pandemics. Energy use of 7 residential archetypes (Bungalow, Converted flat, Detached, Semi-detached, Mid-terrace, End-terrace, and Low-rise buildings) under 13 future climate scenarios for the year 2050 and using detailed pandemic occupancy profiles is simulated. Specific thermo-physical properties and construction details of the archetypes (e.g., U-values, building envelope, HVAC system characteristics, boundary conditions, etc.) are obtained from English Housing Survey (EHS) data to develop a multi-zone model using the EnergyPlus software. The aim is to simulate hourly energy use (heating & hot water, electricity, and cooling) considering future climate scenarios (for the year 2050 as extreme warm and extreme cold) and pandemic measures for (1) Standard Retrofitting Scenario (SRS) and (2) Deep Retrofitting Scenario (DRS) for different housing archetypes. The results show that the increase in cooling during the extreme warm year (EWY) - and under the extended 14-hour to 24-hour potential pandemic occupancy schedule - is significantly greater than the rise in heat consumption during the extreme cold year (ECY) but varies across the housing archetypes. Furthermore, the results show retrofitting can result in higher cooling requirements. Across the three retrofitting scenarios, energy use for cooling is highest under the DRS, while the base case scenario (BCS), no retrofitting, shows the lowest energy use for cooling. Implementing passive cooling measures, such as shading, ventilation, and using cool/green roofs, may offset the increase in cooling demand caused by retrofitting.