Enhancing Travel Demand Forecasting Using CDR Data: A Stay-Based Integration with the Four-Step Model

Abstract

The growing complexity of urban mobility necessitates more adaptive, data-driven approaches to transport demand forecasting. This study incorporates anonymized Call Detail Record (CDR) data—originally collected for mobile network billing—into the conventional four-step travel demand model to more accurately estimate trip behavior. Employing a stay-based method, significant user locations are identified, and individual mobility patterns are reconstructed. These patterns are then aggregated at the zonal level and validated against a large-scale household survey conducted in Sri Lanka. The proposed framework enables the extraction of origin–destination matrices and supports route assignment using CDR data, demonstrating a strong correlation with traditional survey results. This research highlights the potential of repurposed CDR data as a scalable, cost-efficient alternative to conventional travel surveys for estimating travel demand.