Scenarios for the Electrification of the Passenger Car Fleet in Finland
Balashov, Vladislav (2025)
Balashov, Vladislav
2025
Master's Programme in Civil Engineering
Rakennetun ympäristön tiedekunta - Faculty of Built Environment
Hyväksymispäivämäärä
2025-06-05
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tuni-202505266134
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tuni-202505266134
Tiivistelmä
The sphere of transportation is among the top producers of greenhouse gas emissions. The decarbonisation of human activity cannot be imagined without introducing more sustainable driving powers into road transport. One of the most prominent environmentally friendly energy sources is electricity, which is gaining its market share at the time of writing. A better understanding of electric vehicle prospects can be achieved by investigating the drivers and the obstacles to the electrification of the passenger car fleet. This thesis aims to provide insight for creating sustainable business models for electric vehicles in the future.
The three research questions of this thesis aim to gradually emerge the perception of the development of electric vehicles as a driving power and a market player. The first research question examines the factors influencing how a passenger car fleet progresses over time. The second research question inquires about the current and possible shifts in said factors in the European and Finnish environment. On this basis, the third research question is set to create an array of development scenarios for the Finnish passenger car fleet.
To prelude the actual research, certain background information is conveyed to form a rigid knowledge basis. A deeper literature study is presented after a general description of electric passenger cars and their position in the European vehicle market. Its goal is to find the starting point for the Finnish car fleet and the determinants of electric vehicle-related customer decision making. At the concluding phase of the literature review, a range of mathematical car fleet models is overviewed to support the scenario creation with external empirical experience. The conclusion this thesis comes to is that a combination of factors, prevailed by, but not limited to, economic factors, defines the customer demand for various driving powers. As in, electric cars require external customer motivation to become widespread, as they provide a driving experience different from that of internal combustion engine cars.
Among the models presented, SALAMA proved to be the most suitable for a segmented holistic analysis. The main advantage of SALAMA for this thesis is customer segmentation, which is based on a number of characteristics. Based on the researcher’s judgment of consumer preference, the model requires reliable data and detailed factor hypotheses for scenario building. The hypotheses proposed are: (1) Current development trends remain unchanged. (2) The factors take the best possible shape. (3) The factors take the worst possible shape. (4) Only negative financial motivation is used to streamline electrification.
After inputting the “day 0” data and the choice probabilities for different driving powers among all groups, SALAMA performed four separate scenario calculations to obtain the fleet images for the period 2023-2045. In the first scenario, the fleet is largely electrified at a moderate pace. In the second scenario, the final share of electric vehicles is insignificantly higher than under business-as-usual, and the electrification pace is moderately higher. In the third scenario, the emergence of natural gas as a driving power limits the final share of electric vehicles to about fifty per cent. In the fourth scenario, electrification occurs quicker than the baseline, yet it is less complete.
For decision makers, the results of scenario building have several implications. Firstly, the current trends generally foster electrification. Secondly, not only is the final state of the fleet critical, but so are the dynamics of electrification during the interim. Thirdly, it is essential to evaluate the utility of electric vehicles not only per se but also as compared to economic alternatives. Fourthly, negative motivation tends to accelerate electrification at the cost of its ultimate result.
The three research questions of this thesis aim to gradually emerge the perception of the development of electric vehicles as a driving power and a market player. The first research question examines the factors influencing how a passenger car fleet progresses over time. The second research question inquires about the current and possible shifts in said factors in the European and Finnish environment. On this basis, the third research question is set to create an array of development scenarios for the Finnish passenger car fleet.
To prelude the actual research, certain background information is conveyed to form a rigid knowledge basis. A deeper literature study is presented after a general description of electric passenger cars and their position in the European vehicle market. Its goal is to find the starting point for the Finnish car fleet and the determinants of electric vehicle-related customer decision making. At the concluding phase of the literature review, a range of mathematical car fleet models is overviewed to support the scenario creation with external empirical experience. The conclusion this thesis comes to is that a combination of factors, prevailed by, but not limited to, economic factors, defines the customer demand for various driving powers. As in, electric cars require external customer motivation to become widespread, as they provide a driving experience different from that of internal combustion engine cars.
Among the models presented, SALAMA proved to be the most suitable for a segmented holistic analysis. The main advantage of SALAMA for this thesis is customer segmentation, which is based on a number of characteristics. Based on the researcher’s judgment of consumer preference, the model requires reliable data and detailed factor hypotheses for scenario building. The hypotheses proposed are: (1) Current development trends remain unchanged. (2) The factors take the best possible shape. (3) The factors take the worst possible shape. (4) Only negative financial motivation is used to streamline electrification.
After inputting the “day 0” data and the choice probabilities for different driving powers among all groups, SALAMA performed four separate scenario calculations to obtain the fleet images for the period 2023-2045. In the first scenario, the fleet is largely electrified at a moderate pace. In the second scenario, the final share of electric vehicles is insignificantly higher than under business-as-usual, and the electrification pace is moderately higher. In the third scenario, the emergence of natural gas as a driving power limits the final share of electric vehicles to about fifty per cent. In the fourth scenario, electrification occurs quicker than the baseline, yet it is less complete.
For decision makers, the results of scenario building have several implications. Firstly, the current trends generally foster electrification. Secondly, not only is the final state of the fleet critical, but so are the dynamics of electrification during the interim. Thirdly, it is essential to evaluate the utility of electric vehicles not only per se but also as compared to economic alternatives. Fourthly, negative motivation tends to accelerate electrification at the cost of its ultimate result.