Arctic Images of Futures

Abstract

This research is about approaching the Arctic from the perspective of critical futures studies, further focusing the lens with the novel critical-analytical approach. The study assesses how to construct and then in turn deconstruct Arctic images of futures. This thesis generates images of futures with a specified method in order to include plural images in the politics of time, while also questioning givens and hidden meanings. In other words, it challenges the colonisation of time by creating space for alternatives and by revealing underlying meanings.

The Arctic is a unique and frail geographical and political construct. As the research shows, it has a pivotal role in terms of the most pressing global challenges. Climate change, biodiversity loss, geopolitics, mining and tourism industries as well as relating to the indigenous peoples at the Arctic have a determinative effect for the futures of Finland, Europe, and the globe. Futures-oriented research on the dimensionality and construction of images of futures is needed to widen the set of possible interpretations and action.

In order to build new images of futures specific kind of data is needed. It is collected by interviewing esteemed Arctic affairs influencers. The participants are decision-makers and high-level experts from different professional fields and heavily vested in the Finnish Lapland. Their expertise categories are academia, business, defence, diplomacy, indigenous, and politics. The different levels provide a diverse, comprehensive, and a relevant group of interviews for the image-building process. The process is a novel technique of futuring, developed in this thesis to provide futural material that is then deconstructed with the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) method.

A definition of images of futures is provided, which adheres to the specific context of the research. Images of futures are built from five equally important elements: perceptions of the present and past and expectations, fears, and hopes regarding the future. In addition, the experts were asked about their conception of agency in the Arctic. Together, the elements and the representations of agency make an image of a future that can be visualised and assessed further, redrawing boundaries in the imagined, unknown time.

A diversity of images is presented that together with layered analysis give perspective to the construction of social reality in the Arctic. The results include images that question the narratives marginalising local actors. They also place added responsibility for the international community. The CLA unpacks the layers of the image-elements. The litany layer reveals unquestioned standard stories, such as the urgency to open several new mines in Lapland. The systemic layer offers different explanations and solutions to the litany. The discourse layer indicates conflicting priorities, for example, between economic endeavours and environmental protection. The symbolic layer makes connections to the shared psyche via myths and metaphors. In addition, affective appeals to support varying interests and different representations of agency are explicated. The research results suggest a widening of agency in the Arctic. They also demonstrate the composition of politics of time as narratives that can appear partly in line or juxtaposed with each other. The findings implicate conflicting as well as shared perspectives, for example on the weight of the Arctic Council. The images are situated and inclusive, contesting the dominant and colonising narratives. The research also offers theoretical and methodological instruments to critically reimagine Arctic futures.