Region-specific climate change projections: Forecasting energy needs in Finland's residential building stock

Abstract

Three-quarters of the European Union’s building stock is energy inefficient, contributing significantly to the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions. While climate change is a global challenge, solutions must be implemented regionally. This study aims to project the energy demand of Finland’s residential buildings for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under different climate change scenarios. A bottom-up approach was used to classify the current residential stock by floor area, typology, construction period, and region. For future projections, population growth, renovation, and mortality rates were integrated using dynamic material flow analysis. Energy demand simulations were then carried out using regional test reference years, based on RCP climate scenarios and legislative energy limits, while eliminating building geometry differences. In the 2020 period, Finland’s total residential energy demand was 41,415 GWh/year, and renovated buildings at 13,518 GWh/year. Projections for 2030, 2050, and 2080 include findings for typology, region, construction period, and renovation in detail. By 2080, energy demand is projected to decrease by 57% GWh/year and to be 66% respectively RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. This study provides a comprehensive energy demand projections for Finland’s residential building stock. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers assessing renovation actions and future regional energy demand. However, long-term projections need to be updated because of changes in multi-variables. Future research will analyse to meet regional demand by the future periods with integrated renewable energy systems for zero-carbon stock by 2050.