Scenarios for future power system development in Finland

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how various part-solutions can be combined in different scenarios for a more climate-neutral electric energy system. The case study is the Finnish electric energy system. Four scenarios are discussed. A base scenario for 2030 consists of already agreed future investments in new energy production facilities by 2022 supplemented by additional consumption and a moderate increase in renewable energy generation. Alongside the base scenario 2030, two scenarios with more ambitious renewable energy targets and flexibility issues are examined. The fourth scenario is for year 2050 analyzing the operational properties of the system with high share of variable renewable generation, flexible loads, and high-capacity energy storages. These scenarios help to assess how, for example, investing in wind or solar production, heat pumps on a large scale or the battery storage of electric vehicles influences the other components of the system and the implications for emissions.