Explaining the migrant–native vote gap under open-list proportional representation

Abstract

Migrant candidates tend to win fewer preference votes compared to native candidates across electoral systems. We focus on two general explanations for the observed migrant–native vote gap: (1) disproportionate amounts of electorally valuable resources and (2) an electoral penalty whereby migrant candidates who hold similar resources as native candidates are treated differently by the voters. Three types of resources are included as independent variables: personal, social, and contextual. We analyse candidate survey data from the 2017 Finnish municipal elections and apply the twofold Kitagawa–Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition method. The results show that group differences in the distribution of political capital, length of residence, and size of the municipality are associated with the vote gap, as well as the inability of migrant candidates to capitalise on campaign support from people in their immediate social environment.