Prognostic modeling of predictive maintenance with survival analysis for mobile work equipment

Abstract

In recent years there is a data surge of industrial and business data. This posses opportunities and challenges at the same time because the wealth of information is usually buried in complex and frequently disconnected data sets. Predictive maintenance utilizes such data for developing prognostic and diagnostic models that allow the optimization of the life cycle of machine components. In this paper, we address the modeling of the prognostics of machine components from mobile work equipment. Specifically, we are estimating survival curves and hazard rates using parametric and non-parametric models to characterize time dependent failure probabilities of machine components. As a result, we find the presence of different types of censoring masking the presence of different populations that can cause severe problems for statistical estimators and the interpretations of results. Furthermore, we show that the obtained hazard functions for different machine components are complex and versatile and are best modeled via non-parametric estimators. However, notable exceptions for individual machine components can be found amenable for a Generalized-gamma and Weibull model.