Modeled temperature, mortality impact and external benefits of cool roofs and rooftop photovoltaics in London

Abstract

Population exposure to high temperatures poses health risks and increases mortality. ‘Cool roofs’ (high-albedo roofs) and rooftop photovoltaics (RPV) may reduce temperatures in urban areas. Here, using advanced urban climate modeling, we model impacts of these measures on air temperature and heat-related mortality in London during the record-breaking hot summer of 2018. We estimate changes in mean near-surface air temperature of −0.3 °C in the RPV scenario and −0.8 °C in the cool roof scenario. We find that the heat-related mortality in this period (estimated 655–920) could have been reduced by 96 (12%) by RPV, or 249 (32%) by cool roofs, in scenarios where all roofs have these measures. Monetized using value of statistical life, we estimate benefits for RPV and cool roofs of £237 M and £615 M, respectively. We estimate that up to 20 TWh of electrical energy would be generated in the full RPV scenario. We show that, for conditions such as in London June–August 2018, RPV or cool roofs may reduce near-surface air temperatures and associated heat-related mortality, with cool roofs having a larger effect.