How will renewables expansion and hydrocarbon decline impact security? Analysis from a socio-technical transitions perspective

Abstract

Security implications of zero-carbon energy transitions have only recently received more focus. Overarching analyses in transition studies are lacking. Therefore, we combine concepts of positive and negative security with transitions research to analyse the security issues associated with the unfolding transition. We create a framework that explores security via two dimensions: renewables expansion and hydrocarbon decline, suggesting three elements for ‘decline’: disruption to and repurposing skills/assets, unlearning and deep learning, and deinstitutionalisation and shifting pressures. Six security themes were identified from 60 expert interviews in four countries: energy security, defence, electricity system operability, cyber security, geopolitics, and internal stability. Expectations regarding security are polarised around more or less secure future systems. Positive security is dependent on how regime decline is managed. Learning and unlearning, new social network building, and deinstitutionalisation can create complementary processes. Transitions may stall, with negative security implications, if skills/assets are not reconfigured to new system contexts.