President’s constitutional powers and public activism: a focused analysis of presidential speeches under Finland’s two presidencies

Abstract

Changes in formal powers of political actors like presidents are expected to impact their behavior. This study examines speeches that presidents can utilize for a variety of purposes ranging from topical reflections to new political initiatives and criticism of the government and political parties. In semi-presidential regimes, presidents are often constitutionally weaker than governments, but their popularity opens the possibility of using the public platform for swaying the minds of citizens or politicians. We analyze the tone and content of Finnish presidents’ New Year’s messages and parliamentary speeches from 1932 to 2023. To contribute to the long-standing literature on regime effects, we gauge the impact of Finland’s comprehensive constitutional reform that stripped off most powers of the presidency that was formerly considered among the strongest in Europe. The results show that presidential activity changed already in the mid-1990s when the reform was still underway, and presidents appointed since then speak systematically less about domestic policy and emphasize national unity and citizens, indicating that constitutionally weaker presidents recognize their jurisdictional limits and lean more on their role as directly elected heads of state operating above political parties.