Hybrid Threats in the Arctic : The Influence of China's Scientific Activities on Arctic Security Interests

Abstract

This study examines how scientific research conducted by non-Arctic states might threaten the Arctic region’s security interests. Based on the premise that China conducts hybrid threat operations in other regions of the world, this study identifies potential courses of action indicative of Chinese hybrid threat preparation in the Arctic. A morphological analysis is used to investigate the materialization of hybrid threats through scientific endeavors in the region. The results reveal that the Arctic is at least subject to the priming phase of science as a hybrid threat tool. Moreover, the analysis unveils parallels between China’s activities in Arctic science diplomacy and tactics associated with grey-zone conflict and sharp power. Furthermore, this research highlights the potential implications of Chinese scientific engagement for regional stability and security. Hence, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of the multifaceted strategies employed by states to advance their interests in contested regions such as the Arctic, thereby contributing to efforts aimed at promoting stability, cooperation, and conflict prevention.