The impact of information and communication technologies on the spoiling of peace processes : a crisp set Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Lapela, Laura (2023)
2023
Master's Programme in Security and Safety Management
Johtamisen ja talouden tiedekunta - Faculty of Management and Business
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Hyväksymispäivämäärä
2023-11-17
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tuni-202311039382
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tuni-202311039382
Tiivistelmä
Spoilers pose one of the greatest risks in peace processes, and scholars mean there is potential for more spoiling, if actors with spoiler-incentives also had the necessary ways and means to spoil. These opportunities, capabilities, and resources however remain unexplored. With insights from previous studies on the relationship between information and communication technologies (ICTs) and organized violence, mass mobilization, and digital repression, this thesis explores the question: what is the impact of ICT availability and use on peace process spoiling?
To study the relationship between ICTs and peace process spoiling, a crisp set qualitative comparative analysis (csQCA) is conducted. Spoiling is measured as an escalation of conflict-related violence in times when peace negotiations are attempted, and ICTs are conceptualized as mobile phones, the Internet, and social media. Key sources for the study are reports by Escola de Cultura de Pau, data from the Varieties of Democracy Project and Uppsala Conflict Data Program, as well as academic journals like the Journal of Peace Research.
The analysis renders mixed results. In respect to the access and use of ICTs—mainly mobile phones and to some extent social media, rather than the Internet—preliminary claims can be made that there is a relationship between ICTs and spoiling. Nevertheless, further research is needed on a subnational level and to more pointedly focus on underlying motivations before conclusive claims can be presented. The aspect of online shutdown practices raises interesting questions in regards to spoiler management. Tempting would be to claim shutdown practices offer an effective strategy for spoiler management, yet, herein the possible grey zones require further research.
To study the relationship between ICTs and peace process spoiling, a crisp set qualitative comparative analysis (csQCA) is conducted. Spoiling is measured as an escalation of conflict-related violence in times when peace negotiations are attempted, and ICTs are conceptualized as mobile phones, the Internet, and social media. Key sources for the study are reports by Escola de Cultura de Pau, data from the Varieties of Democracy Project and Uppsala Conflict Data Program, as well as academic journals like the Journal of Peace Research.
The analysis renders mixed results. In respect to the access and use of ICTs—mainly mobile phones and to some extent social media, rather than the Internet—preliminary claims can be made that there is a relationship between ICTs and spoiling. Nevertheless, further research is needed on a subnational level and to more pointedly focus on underlying motivations before conclusive claims can be presented. The aspect of online shutdown practices raises interesting questions in regards to spoiler management. Tempting would be to claim shutdown practices offer an effective strategy for spoiler management, yet, herein the possible grey zones require further research.