Re-focusing on the Future : Backcasting Carbon Neutral Cities
Neuvonen, Aleksi (2022)
Neuvonen, Aleksi
Tampere University
2022
Rakennetun ympäristön tohtoriohjelma - Doctoral Programme in the Built Environment
Rakennetun ympäristön tiedekunta - Faculty of Built Environment
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Väitöspäivä
2022-09-16
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-03-2534-3
https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-03-2534-3
Tiivistelmä
The dissertation deals with the effects of carbon neutrality goals of cities on spatial planning. The special focus is on the utilization of backcasting future scenarios in this new context.
Hundreds of cities around the world have set goals for carbon neutrality to be achieved over the coming decades. These politically defined strategic goals provide a new kind of framework for urban planning. They provide normative, numerical indicators on what society and cities of the future should look like in the coming decades. Simultaneously, the desired carbon-neutral future will act as a vantage point for planning, replacing a present resulting from historical trends. The title of the dissertation, Re-focusing on the future, refers to this change.
Within futures studies this type of normative scenario approach is called backcasting, referring to imagined, logical pathways extending from a distant future to the present. The study contributes to planning theory by suggesting ways in which backcasting scenarios are being embedded in urban planning and by explaining how normative goals on carbon neutrality change goals, contents and process of urban planning.
These topics are being elaborated using three case studies and a literature review, all written as individual academic journal articles.
The literature review (presented in Article 1 “Planning Meets Futures Studies. Systemic societal change and the possibility of transformational planning) explores how the relationship between planning and futures studies has been described in previous academic literature. It provides context to the inquiries on backcasting and its potential role in spatial planning.
The first case study (presented in Article 2 “Low-carbon futures and sustainable lifestyles: A backcasting scenario approach”) depicts and explains the logic behind the backcasting scenarios created in the SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 project. The case explores the function and purpose of backcasting scenarios in transitions towards a carbon-neutral society.
The second case study (presented in Article 3 “Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures”) presents a description and analysis of the Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 process. This process intended to create a long-term transformative vision for a territory that previously lacked formal governance structures.
The third case study (presented in Article 4 “The New Normative: Synergistic Scenario Planning for Carbon-Neutral Cities and Regions”) explores the emerging role of carbon neutrality targets as ‘the new normative’ in urban and regional planning. The context of the new normative is being illustrated through a review of the Greater Manchester process on developing climate mitigation, low-carbon and carbon neutrality policies since the 1990s.
The main results of the dissertation are related to explaining how backcasting generates higher-order, strategic and collective learning that can increase agency, change problem framings and enable new forms of collaboration and co-production. Additionally, the role of un-learning as an outcome of backcasting is highlighted, referring to an idea that different actors can see the future as dependent on choices made in the present day, instead of as something determined by external forces.
The main practical relevance of this thesis arises from explanations on why backcasting scenarios are an indispensable tool in planning toward carbon neutrality and how their benefits appear. For urban planning, these scenarios expand the view on decarbonisation and help discover a more detailed and wider scope of solutions than what planning has previously provided. Examples include traditional density, public transit and walkability-related frameworks on climate mitigation. This is bound to become increasingly important as the decarbonisation of primary energy production and urban mobility are accelerated and the priorities in emission reductions move to other domains of consumption and urban lifestyles.
Hundreds of cities around the world have set goals for carbon neutrality to be achieved over the coming decades. These politically defined strategic goals provide a new kind of framework for urban planning. They provide normative, numerical indicators on what society and cities of the future should look like in the coming decades. Simultaneously, the desired carbon-neutral future will act as a vantage point for planning, replacing a present resulting from historical trends. The title of the dissertation, Re-focusing on the future, refers to this change.
Within futures studies this type of normative scenario approach is called backcasting, referring to imagined, logical pathways extending from a distant future to the present. The study contributes to planning theory by suggesting ways in which backcasting scenarios are being embedded in urban planning and by explaining how normative goals on carbon neutrality change goals, contents and process of urban planning.
These topics are being elaborated using three case studies and a literature review, all written as individual academic journal articles.
The literature review (presented in Article 1 “Planning Meets Futures Studies. Systemic societal change and the possibility of transformational planning) explores how the relationship between planning and futures studies has been described in previous academic literature. It provides context to the inquiries on backcasting and its potential role in spatial planning.
The first case study (presented in Article 2 “Low-carbon futures and sustainable lifestyles: A backcasting scenario approach”) depicts and explains the logic behind the backcasting scenarios created in the SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 project. The case explores the function and purpose of backcasting scenarios in transitions towards a carbon-neutral society.
The second case study (presented in Article 3 “Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures”) presents a description and analysis of the Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 process. This process intended to create a long-term transformative vision for a territory that previously lacked formal governance structures.
The third case study (presented in Article 4 “The New Normative: Synergistic Scenario Planning for Carbon-Neutral Cities and Regions”) explores the emerging role of carbon neutrality targets as ‘the new normative’ in urban and regional planning. The context of the new normative is being illustrated through a review of the Greater Manchester process on developing climate mitigation, low-carbon and carbon neutrality policies since the 1990s.
The main results of the dissertation are related to explaining how backcasting generates higher-order, strategic and collective learning that can increase agency, change problem framings and enable new forms of collaboration and co-production. Additionally, the role of un-learning as an outcome of backcasting is highlighted, referring to an idea that different actors can see the future as dependent on choices made in the present day, instead of as something determined by external forces.
The main practical relevance of this thesis arises from explanations on why backcasting scenarios are an indispensable tool in planning toward carbon neutrality and how their benefits appear. For urban planning, these scenarios expand the view on decarbonisation and help discover a more detailed and wider scope of solutions than what planning has previously provided. Examples include traditional density, public transit and walkability-related frameworks on climate mitigation. This is bound to become increasingly important as the decarbonisation of primary energy production and urban mobility are accelerated and the priorities in emission reductions move to other domains of consumption and urban lifestyles.
Kokoelmat
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