"Grew Up in a Slaughterhouse" : An Empirical Analysis of Homicides in Chicago 2000-2016
Vatanen, Pekka (2017)
2017
Master's Degree Programme in Public Choice
Yhteiskuntatieteiden tiedekunta - Faculty of Social Sciences
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Hyväksymispäivämäärä
2017-06-05
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:uta-201706262104
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:uta-201706262104
Tiivistelmä
Homicide rates have remained consistently high in Chicago in spite of a nationwide downward trend in the past decades. This thesis examines the effects of public housing policy on homicide rates in Chicago in order to see whether or not the city's decision to demolish high-rise public housing projects had the intended effect of lowering homicide rates.
This thesis applies game theory to build a model on expected actions of relocated gang members. Spatial and traditional analysis methods are used to analyze data to see if the game theoretic prediction holds true, and if the city's policy choices produced the desired effects. The data used in the thesis is compiled from crime statistics from the Chicago Police Department and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Spatiotemporal analysis indicates that homicide rates decreased in areas where high-rise projects were demolished, but increased in other areas. A spatial lag model indicates that detrimental socioeconomic factors are correlated with homicide rates spatially. A regression model with fixed effects for community areas indicates that the presence of high-rise housing increases homicide rates.
The results emphasize the need to consider possibly unintended consequences in public housing policy. Based on the literature and data, preventive measures are vital, as bad policies and designs present the risk of a downward spiral that is almost impossible to break once it has begun. There are possibilities of conducting further research in the area in more detail and with more material under examination.
This thesis applies game theory to build a model on expected actions of relocated gang members. Spatial and traditional analysis methods are used to analyze data to see if the game theoretic prediction holds true, and if the city's policy choices produced the desired effects. The data used in the thesis is compiled from crime statistics from the Chicago Police Department and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Spatiotemporal analysis indicates that homicide rates decreased in areas where high-rise projects were demolished, but increased in other areas. A spatial lag model indicates that detrimental socioeconomic factors are correlated with homicide rates spatially. A regression model with fixed effects for community areas indicates that the presence of high-rise housing increases homicide rates.
The results emphasize the need to consider possibly unintended consequences in public housing policy. Based on the literature and data, preventive measures are vital, as bad policies and designs present the risk of a downward spiral that is almost impossible to break once it has begun. There are possibilities of conducting further research in the area in more detail and with more material under examination.