Effects of electric vehicles and heat pumps on long-term electricity consumption scenarios for rural areas in the nordic environment

Abstract

Electrical energy consumption is undergoing major changes driven by several factors. Trends in electric vehicle (EV) purchases and heating system conversion indicate that changes in electricity demand can be significant between today and year 2030. For instance in Finland, the target for EVs is 250 000 passenger cars by 2030. At the same time, a significant number of heat pumps (HPs) will be installed in detached houses replacing old heating systems such as oil-fired boilers. In this paper, the effects of EVs and HPs on electricity consumption in Finnish rural areas are modeled and analyzed.